Published by Bob on 28 Jan 2009
10% Can Be The Difference Between Profit Or Loss
Predictions for the coming new year have been running their course.
If you read this blog you know I’ve been a long-time fan of “Coast to Coast AM”, the most popular of all the night time radio programs.
The January 1, 2009 broadcast was quite fascinating.
Gerald Celente, led off a number of futurists, psychics and practitioners of the predictive arts. For those of you who may not be aquainted with Gerald Celente, he’s been around a long time - has established himself as being very accurate at predicting coming trends.
His predictions were the most dire:
We’re going to see a substantial failures of retail merchants beginning in January. The main reason was the dismal holiday selling season - the worst in decades.
What a lot of people don’t realize is that most retail operations whose sales drop 10% or more can suddenly be faced with massive lay-offs, store closings and even bankruptcy.
Why?
Except for a handful of businesses - most businesses are leveraged, mortgaged and basically running on credit. Which means that 10% loss in sales revenue can cause them to not have the financial where-with-all to continue to operate - That 10% is where they’re operating profit exists.
Look at it this way:
A business with a 1,000 stores with a revenue of 1 million dollars per store equals a billion dollars. 10% of a billion is 100 million. This is simplistic but hopefully you get the idea - Those stores have to maintain a certain level of revenue in order for the 10% profit margin to actually happen.
This where it can get complicated
The profit margin rapidly deteriorates as the revenues go down - It’s not in direct proportion. If the revenue drops to 900 million dollars the profit doesn’t stay at 10%
It may drop to 5 or 6%.
A 10% drop in revenue can have a catastrophic effect on many businesses. Causing their profit margin to shrink very rapidly…
This is why banks are not lending to businesses - which appear to have large yearly sales revenue - It has to do with businesses’ revenue model. As far as the bank is concerned the bottom line profitability of the business - which is how the loans will be paid back - is much lower than a 10% fall in yearly revenues would indicate.
You see, many American businesses - like many Americans - are operating on a week to week basis - often struggling to keep afloat even in the best of times.
I’m sorry to say that we’re going to see a large number of businesses fail in the coming months because a 10 -15% fall in revenues means they won’t be able to keep their doors open.
Please support your local merchants. There’s a lot of good people who are suffering though sleepless nights right now.